What is the test for "speculation" in the context of the application's application for a conditional discharge?

Canada (Federal), Canada

The following excerpt is from Isse v. Canada (Minister of Citizenship and Immigration), 1998 CanLII 8245 (FC):

The panel's conclusion regarding the applicant's late pregnancy is made without any evidentiary basis, rather it is based on the panel's own views. It is urged that those views were in turn based on the panel's awareness of Somali culture and tradition, but if that is the case the significance of that culture and those traditions is not explained. All that is said is that it was implausible her husband would wait 16 years after marriage for the birth of a first child. The panel's conclusion was purely speculative. In the recent case of Mahalingam v. Canada (Minister of Citizenship and Immigration)1, Mr. Justice Gibson summarized the law relating to speculation as follows:

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