Does a Rule 11 error affect a defendant's substantial rights?

^1. In determining whether a Rule 11 error affected a defendant's substantial rights, we have recently explained that, "[i]f the misinformation in all likelihood would not have affected a defendant's decision-making calculus, then the error would be harmless, and the guilty plea need not be vacated." United States v. Pattee, 820 F.3d 496, 505 (2d Cir. 2016) (internal quotation marks omitted). "In short, [defendant] must show that the district court's error had an effect on his decision to plead guilty." Id. (internal quotation marks omitted).