The following excerpt is from Amnesty Int'l USA. v. Clapper, Docket No. 09-4112-cv (2nd Cir. 2011):
When a plaintiff asserts a present injury based on conduct taken in anticipation of future government action, we evaluate the likelihood that the future action will in fact come to pass. To determine whether the present injury "fairly can be traced to the challenged [future] action," see Simon v. Eastern Ky. Welfare Rights Org., 426 U.S. 26, 38 (1976), we must consider whether a plaintiff's present injury resulted from some irrational or otherwise clearly unreasonable fear of future government action that is unlikely to take place. Such a disconnect between the present injury and predicted future government action would break the causal chain required for standing.
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