What is the test for demonstrating a reasonable probability that a petitioner would have negotiated a plea bargain not requiring removal if counsel advised her to plead guilty to a charge of domestic violence?

A petitioner may also demonstrate a reasonable probability by showing that she settled on a charge in a purposeful attempt to avoid an adverse effect on her immigration status. See Kovacs v. United States, 744 F.3d 44, 53 (2d Cir. 2014) (finding petitioner's "single-minded focus in the plea negotiations [on] the risk of immigration consequences" and evidence that he "settled on [the felony charge] for the sole reason that [counsel] believed it would not impair [petitioner's] immigration status. . . . show[ed] a reasonable probability that he could have negotiated a plea with no effect on his immigration status."). Rodriguez-Vega rejected an initial plea bargain containing a stipulated removal provision, and accepted the revised plea bargain only after this provision had been removed. In addition, counsel's declaration states that his client accepted the revised plea after he advised her that "she had a better chance with Immigration with the misdemeanor conviction" than with the charged felony. These facts indicate that Rodriguez-Vega settled on the misdemeanor charge with the stipulated removal provision deleted specifically in order to limit her chances of removal and, consequently, showed a reasonable probability that, but for counsel's failure to provide adequate advice, she would have negotiated a plea bargain not requiring her removal.

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