Determination of whether a past event occurred is based on the balance of probabilities. But what would have happened in the past but for the injury, is not any more knowable than what will happen in the future. Therefore, the likelihoods of both future events and hypothetical past events are decided based first on deciding whether there was (for past events) or is (for future events) a real possibility. Then the judge must determine the actual likelihood of its occurring: Smith v. Knudsen, 2004 BCCA 613, at paras. 28 - 29.
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